A320 crashes in the French Alps

From Barcelona to Dusseldforf....

Digne-les-Bains .....142 paxs and 6 crew.

Germanwings - budget off-shoot of Lufthansa.

Mountainous region.....could be something called a CFIT - Controlled Flight into Terrain.

No survivors expected....

Oh eck......that aint good news

Odd one....from 40.000' to 6.000' in 8 minutes without deviating off course suggests a rapid, but controlled descent by the pilots....possibly due to a rapid/explosive decompression or structural failure of sorts.

Unless, the pilots lost useful consciousness due to hypoxia whilst in a standard procedural dive without flight deck oxygen - then couldn't arrest the decent rate until it hit the mountain at 500mph. Only saving grace is that the paxs and crew wouldn't have felt a thing at that speed and looking at the debris field.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3010366/Players-Swedish-club-Dalkurd-FF-escaped-death-doomed-Dusseldorf-jet.html

How lucky were this football team?

Very.

Looks like a Manchester coulpe and their baby were on board.

Looks like the descent was like it was approaching for landing.

Interesting that all flights are tracked by some websites. How difficult would it be to change the software program to give an alert if a plane made an odd manoeuvre? Not sure if this would be if any use anytime in the future. In this case, it appeared like a normal approach for landing so no alarm bells.

4,000' feet per minute isn't any normal approach for landing I know of Dawg.

From flight level 380 to 6,000' would normally be taken at 1,200' feet per minute, depending on aircraft type, weather, approach pattern, traffic etc....therefore, and normal flight descent profile would have meant approx 20 minutes.

Think about the last time you flew....from cruising altitude and when you felt the aircraft start to descend into its destination...how long did it take for you to know you were on final approach, 5-6 miles out? Normally about 20 minutes or so.

At the rate they were descending - 1.5 minutes later from 6,500' they'd have hit the runway if on an approach....and they were still at 400-450mph......instead of approx 200mph, ready to reduce power to approx 140mph for crossing the runway threshold.

Nah, this aircraft was going straight down, descending at a huge speed and losing altitude very quickly.

One possible explanation is a rapid decompression - the aircraft system can allow the aircraft to automatically go into a rapid descent to get down to 10,000' - acceptable breathing altitude without oxygen. 

Problem is, if the pilots hadn't donned their flight deck oxygen at high altitude - time of useful consciousness at 38,000' is approx 15 seconds - which means they then become incapacitated. 

The aircraft may continue on it's rapid descent, passing through 10,000' at the normal point where a pilot would arrest the descent - and continue straight down into the ground/mountain etc.

Only theory - but maybe one reason why a Mayday was called, then nothing from the pilots and no abnormal deviations in descent from the aircraft.

All conjecture at this stage - guess we'll get more information from the FDR/CVR over the next couple of days.

Topdawg wrote: In this case, it appeared like a normal approach for landing so no alarm bells.

Really?
Is decending 32,000 feet in 8 minutes normal (i honestly don't know this)?

It was also heading to Dusseldorf, so a decent at this stage of the flight surely wouldn't be normal. It does seem strange that no messages to ATC have been recorded during this decent....unless they've not been released yet.

Yeah, 2 conflicting reports so far - one being a Mayday was called, the other (more plausible) is that they squaked 7700 on the transponder which indicates an emergency.

ATC following its flight track would see a 7700 above the aircraft in red on their radar, which tells them of an emergency, but they would not get an audible "mayday, mayday" from the pilots.

I read a report that the mayday was from ATC. after they lost contact. I also read that the descent was normal if approaching for landing (losing that altitude, but no mention of the speed not falling).

15 seconds doesn't seem a long time for the pilots to don safe breathing masks. Maybe there could be a small reserve of oxygen in the cabin somewhere, to be released in an emergency that would give the pilots a few minutes grace.

Topdawg wrote:I read a report that the mayday was from ATC. after they lost contact. I also read that the descent was normal if approaching for landing (losing that altitude, but no mention of the speed not falling).

15 seconds doesn't seem a long time for the pilots to don safe breathing masks. Maybe there could be a small reserve of oxygen in the cabin somewhere, to be released in an emergency that would give the pilots a few minutes grace.

Cabin altitude is normally kept at approx 8000' on an Airbus....a rapid/explosive decompression means the cabin altitude in flight, suddenly becomes the same altitude as you are flying at - in this case 38,000'...in an instant.

Masks will deploy in the cabin - but will only last for 12 minutes....as that should get you to 10,000' if the pilots are in control.

It takes approx 5 seconds to get flight deck oxygen donned...however, that's in a simulator. Add to that a massive drop in temp - down to -50C, confusion, misting (warm air mixing with the cold air outside, debris - anything loose will try to find it's way out of the aircraft via the 'hole'....15 seconds really isn't a long time - but they are trained for that, but as we know, training is one thing.

blueboy wrote:4,000' feet per minute isn't any normal approach for landing I know of Dawg.

I don't know very much about the mechanics of flying, but even a luddite like me can tell a descent of 4,000 feet per minute falls under the category of "plummet".

I just worked out that this is a descent speed of almost 46mph

Somehow, I think its probably greater than 46mph Leo..

If the aircraft was at less than 140-180mph it'd stall in flight.

he means vertically speaking 46mph... is a hell of a speed in the downwards direction...

Sorry, yes, if we calculated a vertical 'descent speed'....46mph down isn't nice, but nothing major.

Looks as though something catastrophic happened preventing the pilots from contacting ATC. Sad.

However, 4,000' per minute is anything massively abnormal - IF, it's a controlled rapid descent, which would mean not allowing the airspeed to get above 390-400 mph, a standard rapid descent without the landing gear deployed would be approx 6-7,000' per minute....to get it down to 10,000'....

Holy crap...and i thought i was good at Maths too. All these numbers are making my head hurt

blueboy wrote:Sorry, yes, if we calculated a vertical 'descent speed'....46mph down isn't nice, but nothing major.

Yes, that's what I meant - dropping out of the sky at a rate of 46mph. Granted, it's a long way short of terminal velocity, but I'd only say it's "not major" if it happened over the space of a few seconds. Any longer than that and you're on some fairly hefty descent.

The plane's second flight recorder has been found but is badly damaged. A senior French official said that workers on the scene had found the casing of the data recorder, but the memory chip inside had been dislodged and was missing.
It also reports investigators have so far been unable to retrieve any information from the the cockpit voice recorder - recovered by a helicopter team on Tuesday.

Also theory that the windscreen broke/shattered leaving the pilots incapacitated. 

May be another one where we never know the cause.

Also theory that the windscreen broke/shattered leaving the pilots incapacitated.

....................

Then a rapid explosive decompression, which was my first initial thoughts.

The black boxes are damaged but 'usable' according to reports.

I don't understand why there are conflicting reports. Yes there is some confusion, but surely they can sing from the same hymn sheet?

Possible Engine Failure
Skynews:
Sources suggest that the speed of the plane shortly before the crash - about 350mph (300 knots) - might indicate engine failure as a cause of the crash.

This is because 350mph is the speed a pilot would aim to reach before trying to "relight" the engines after a double engine failure.

.....................

Can't see this at all. I ran loads of accident case studies where there has been an engine core lock - worse than an engine flame out - and the pilots have always been talking to ATC whilst on the way down trying a re-light procedure....on occasions they have crashed, but only after exhausting all options - and why would they aim for a mountainous region if making a rapid dive? Doesn't make sense this theory.

blueboy wrote:Also theory that the windscreen broke/shattered leaving the pilots incapacitated.

....................

Then a rapid explosive decompression, which was my first initial thoughts.

If that's the case, do we need fighter jet style masks for pilots?

If it was a controlled dive for 8 minutes, surely they would have spoken with ATC?
Don't buy that theory.

Topdawg wrote:

blueboy wrote:Also theory that the windscreen broke/shattered leaving the pilots incapacitated.

....................

Then a rapid explosive decompression, which was my first initial thoughts.

If that's the case, do we need fighter jet style masks for pilots?

They have rapid donning flight deck oxygen next to their seat. They squeeze 2 red levers which opens a flap and inflates the tubes - the Airbus has full face mask and all you need to do is place it over your head, release the red lever which deflates the harness around your head to fit...all in all it can be done in 5 seconds. Next step is to check comms with your co-pilot and that the radio frequency works...and the O2 supply last for ages, but there has been cases like the golfer Payne Stewart where the crew put the masks on, but got no oxygen - it had accidentally been switched off during maintenance. The switch for this is behind a panel by your feet. Obviously, with TUC which I posted a graphic of - at that altitude you can lose useful consciousness in 15 seconds. This could be another possible explanation - that in all of the confusion, noise, rapid drop in temperature, debris, misting - by the time they got their masks on and realised there wasn't any O2 supply - they'd past their TUC.

Oh, and as for checking it works prior to flight, it's only a requirement to press the black test button, see a yellow cross appear and listen for a hissing sound. However, after previous crashes, a lot of airlines ask pilots to press it more than once - as you can get a false reading as you may only hear the residual pressure in the lines - basically, what's left in the lines leading to the mask harness, which may lead you to believe they are working, when in fact, a couple more presses would lead you to hear nothing and know something is wrong.

Bluey, you should put yourself forwards as an expert so you can comment on tv and radio.

You certainly seem to know your stuff.

I used to do quite a few for Radio 5 Live about 5/6 years ago...

I should know my stuff - I've been training aircrew for the past 17 years.

Have they now said, it could be a suicide attempt on behalf of a pilot or a terrorist attack.

A newspaper report, suggests the audio contains intriguing information at the least: One of the pilots is heard leaving the cockpit, then banging on the door with increasing urgency in an unsuccessful attempt to get back in.
"The guy outside is knocking lightly on the door and there is no answer," The New York Times quotes an unidentified investigator as saying. "And then he hits the door stronger and no answer. There is never an answer."
Eventually, the newspaper quotes the investigator as saying: "You can hear he is trying to smash the door down."
The investigator, whom the newspaper said could not be identified because the investigation is continuing, said officials don't know why the pilot left. He also does not speculate on why the other pilot didn't open the door or make contact with ground control before the crash.

Yeah, just read that. Not sure what's in German CAA regulations, but in the UK, if a pilot wishes to go to the toilet, then a crew member must take their place in the cockpit, just in case of a pilot incapacitation. There should always be 2 people in the cockpit basically.

As for why he couldn't get back in...can only think the cockpit door had a manual dead bolt/lock. Or, the pilot in the cockpit selected 'lock' on the control panel when an emergency code was entered by the pilot trying to get in. There are certain protocols for the secure flight deck door, but I can't go into them for obvious reasons. 

It does seem a bit odd. Can't see how it could be terrorist related. Suicide is an possibility with MH 370 being so high profile last year, or the pilot became incapacitated, but as I said, there are procedures to get in the via the secure door if that's the case.

The flight profile fits a dive straight into the mountain. As I said before...if it was a decompression, they should have levelled off at 10,000' and why dive heading for high terrain? 

Guess we'll have to wait and see.

Looks deliberate then. If he was incapacitated, why did he lock the door and why couldn't the other pilot get back in?

You couldn't fit a 3rd person in the cockpit just in case something like this happens again.

I remember reading somewhere that the pilot in MH370 did a 'flyover' of Penang (his home island) before it disappeared. It was like he was saying goodbye.

Topdawg wrote:Looks deliberate then. If he was incapacitated, why did he lock the door and why couldn't the other pilot get back in?

You couldn't fit a 3rd person in the cockpit just in case something like this happens again.

I remember reading somewhere that the pilot in MH370 did a 'flyover' of Penang (his home island) before it disappeared. It was like he was saying goodbye.

I'll try answer each point as 'best' as I can - without overstepping any marks.

The secure door locks automatically when somebody closes it after engine start and push back for e.g. - since 9/11 all larger aircraft over a certain weight/seats MUST have a secure door.  On the A320 there's a keypad on the front toilet bulkhead. All airlines have their own procedures - codes, etc. It has two options - normal entry and emergency entry.

Most fleets are now fitted with CDSS - Cockpit Door Surveillance Systems - cameras strategically placed around the door area - so the pilots can see on monitors in the cockpit immediately outside the door and around the corners to both front doors (in case somebody decides to hide around there).

In normal everyday mode - if a crew member wants to go into the cockpit to speak to the pilots - they need to press a Company code. There's a loud buzzer in the cockpit that tells the pilots somebody wants to come in. They then MUST check all 3 cameras to ascertain the identity of the caller and then from a control panel they select 'unlock'....the crew member opens the door and goes in, shutting the door behind them which then locks the door again. When they need to go back out - the cameras are checked once again - and the crew member can then just open the door as normal from within the cockpit - close it and its then automatically locked again.

Now, airlines, depending on the threat level to a nation state - USA/UK/Israel etc - will have further protocols that I can't go into with regards the secure door operation in flight.

There is also an emergency code - again, determined by the airline. This allows access to the cockpit in an emergency situation - lets say a double pilot incapacitation. Once again, I definitely cannot go any further with regards to this part - however, before anyone thinks that this is dangerous because hijackers getting to know it....let me assure you, it's safe. The reason being is that if the emergency code was entered and the pilots saw a hijacker outside the cockpit on the CDSS - they would just select 'deny' option and the door is then permanently locked for a pre-determined amount of time. Nobody could get in. Basically, it's just the same as if the hijacker knocked on the door and shouted for the pilots to let them in - they wouldn't, under ANY circumstances...therefore, they still have complete control of the cockpit integrity.

Some airlines change their codes regularly - which is pretty pointless really. Not sure if Germanwings do this. It really doesn't matter who knows the codes - because the only people who can allow you access are the pilots - and are they really going to allow some maniac/hijacker into the cockpit? Absolutely not, regardless of any threat to life in the cabin.

There are 4 seats on most larger aircraft like the A320, and trust me, even when all 4 seats are occupied, there's still plenty of room - especially on the Airbus.

As for a 3rd person - like I said earlier, many airlines have a procedure whereby a crew member will go into the cockpit if a pilot needs a toilet break - just in case of pilot incapacitation etc - but as more and more airlines rely on CDSS...which allows the remaining pilot in the cockpit to view the cameras and not have to get out of their seat to unlock the door now, this may be happening less and less. However, it is still a CAA requirement that if your cameras are not working, a crew member MUST be in the cockpit if a pilot needs a toilet break...as they have to use the spyhole to check the identity of the person wanting access - and you can't have a pilot getting out of their seat to do this.

Hope this clears things up a little?

Interesting stuff blue.....so wtf happened to this plane then?

Thanks, very informative.

Germnawings don't have the policy where you need a 2nd person in the cockpit if one pilot leaves 'for a short time' which I find very risky (and may well prove to be the case).

When I worked in internal audit I liked looking at systems for weak points even if they seemed ridiculous. What might seem ridiculous to most people might be ingenious to someone with nefarious motives. Most people seem to have the belief that things just won't go wrong if the possibility is remote.

sounds like one of the pilots has locked everyone else out against protocol?
would be the only way only 1 would be in there and other pilot locked out, and unable to gain access?

shakencity wrote:Interesting stuff blue.....so wtf happened to this plane then?

My company provides Accident Investigation courses - and the problem is at this stage, we don't have access to the data. just the speculative reports that have been coming out.

If we are to take what we 'think' is true and they are actual facts, then you have to ask some questions first:

1 - If the CVR audio provides noises that indicate the pilot trying to get into the cockpit, was heard tapping lightly on the door, then moments later even louder, until they can hear him trying the 'bash down the door'...then you would also expect to hear the cockpit door entry buzzer as well, as this is significantly louder than a slight 'tapping' at the door. You would also expect to hear the emergency buzzer - normally a loud buzzer, a second gap, another loud buzzer another 10 second gap, then a continuous loud buzzer for approx 20 seconds....and if no action is taken to the buzzer - this is when there is the potential 'window' for the pilot outside to open the door and gain access. However, if this protocol has been followed - IF, the pilot at the controls wanted to, he could easily have denied access to the 'buzzer' and secure door by automatically locking it down (as per a hijack scenario)....then NO access can be gained for up to 20 minutes - unless the pilot at the controls wanted to give them access - which in this case doesn't appear to have happened.

- now, what could have been the reasons?

*Pilot Incapacitation (cardiac arrest, epileptic fit, subtle unconsciousness through illness)? Well, personally, I would suggest it goes without saying, that if the procedures would have been followed with the secure door - the emergency code would have given the pilot outside, access to the cockpit....so I'd rule this out to start with (and this is without any other knowledge of what's on the CVR, just what we have been told so far).

*Loss of windscreen due to maintenance error, causing the one pilot to become suddenly unconscious (this has happened before - famous incident of BAC 1-11, luckily the pilots feet got jammed under the control yoke, stopping him being blown out)? Again, the problem I have with this is that they claim to have heard the 'light' knocking by the pilot outside the cockpit. At Flight Level 380, a sudden loss of a windscreen would yield all of the signs and symptoms I mentioned in earlier posts...you would still expect the pilot at the controls to remain in his seat and put on his oxygen - if conscious and not injured (it's a requirement that all pilots where their lap and crotch strap in flight, but not the harness except for landing - partly because of the BAC1-11 incident where the Captain didn't have his on, that why he got blown forward). The problem I have with this theory is that with all the noise etc, I very much doubt you'd hear 'light' knocking on the flight deck door, very very unlikely. So I'd rule that out without further information of what's on the CVR.

*Massive structural failure?.....see above explanation.

*Pilot suicide? At this moment in time - AND especially if the reports are correct about hearing the pilot outside - and considering the controlled, rapid dive into mountains - this would be top of the list so far.

It's interesting they still haven't released the pilot and crew names. This would be fairly easy to do. I'm sure all the relatives, crewing and other aircrew at Germanwings know who was on the crew. Is there a reason behind this?

At this stage information is limited and it could well turn out to be a tragic accident, human error or maintenance error...we'll have to wait and see. However, the news of the pilot outside of the cockpit is significant. It's uncommon in accidents, but it has happened on at least 4 or 5 occasions that I know of, where a plane has crashed when this has happened - in one case the young son and daughter of a Russian captain let his kids sit in the pilot seats - they accidentally disconnected the auto-pilot and the aircraft went into an uncontrolled dive with everyone un-secure - so couldn't arrest the descent.

Marseille prosecutor says co-pilot deliberately crashed the plane.

blueboy wrote:Marseille prosecutor says co-pilot deliberately crashed the plane.

Well how selfish if this is the case....taking 150+ innocent people with him.

There are plenty of other ways of topping yourself without involving anyone else.

Tragic...and would have been absolutely terrifying. The only saving grace is that at 700kmph, they wouldn't have felt anything at the end.

Surprised if people didn't understand what was going on and starting calling/messaging friends.

If you see the pilot trying to break the door down. you must realise something serious is going on.

Maybe by the time they realised, it may have been too late.

Mobile phones wouldn't work at that altitude Dawg - maybe towards the end, but the last thing you would be doing is having any hands free to use a phone at that rate of descent....it would have been seriously uncomfortable.

Maybe Bluey, but maybe some people recorded messages for loved ones? I guess we'll find out over the next few weeks. Absolutely tragic and I guess security protocols will have to be reviewed.

Well, as it seems with what I mentioned earlier - Germanwings DID have a procedure for a crew member to be in the cockpit when a pilot has a toilet break...just obviously didn't follow it.

It really does annoy me as an Instructor when airlines and aircrew don't follow basic security procedures. Yes, the chances are rare that one of your own pilots would do such a thing - but it's a procedure in place to mitigate against this and other scenarios.

Passenger screams heard just before impact...