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Neymar - the myth behind the transfer....

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Neymar - the myth behind the transfer....

Post by blueboy on Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:29 am

....when fans say "yeah, but shirt sales alone will pay for his transfer fee"

Neymar has no chance whatsoever of earning Paris Saint Germain sufficient extra income to pay for his world record transfer from Barcelona. None whatsoever. Zilch, zero, nada.
I expect in the coming days to see reams of nonsense on this subject, claiming that millions of extra shirt sales will boost PSG's coffers to balance the books for the £198million signing.
It's a myth. Rubbish. Ignorant piffle. Clubs typically receive 10 to 15 percent of a shirt manufacturer's margin per sale, above a certain level of sales. Even if Neymar sold many hundreds of thousands of PSG shirts (itself a big ask), the extra income would be worth single-digit millions to PSG.

There will be claims that Neymar, already a Brazil legend at the tender age of 25, is so globally famous that his huge number of global Twitter tweeps, Facebook fans and Insta gang will fill PSG's tills.
More garbage. Cristiano Ronaldo remains roughly twice as popular. Kaka beats Neymar in combined Twitter and Facebook fans, and he plays for Orlando.
Demi Lovato and Narendra Modi are among the 40 people and brands with more Twitter followers than Neymar. Yes, he's a big name, but he's no Wiz Khalifa.
Even if he were, his personal fan base will generally benefit him, not his employer, in terms of the bottom line. You could also argue he's become so famous by playing for Barcelona and will do well to sustain those levels at a lesser club, but that's another matter.

This isn't to say Neymar isn't extremely famous, talented, popular and a box office draw - he is all of those - but his fame, per se, won't bring torrents of new cash flowing into PSG. The football business just doesn't work like that.
He personally will become ever wealthier because of this latest move, but PSG? Not so much, and here's why.
Football clubs - all football clubs - have three ways of making money, or revenue streams, if you want to use industry-speak.

They are match day income (tickets, programmes, corporate dining, pies and so on); media income (mainly TV cash, both domestic and continental); and commercial income (mainly but not just sponsorship, which itself comes mainly but not solely from kit deals and shirt sponsors).
We can explore the fine detail but in a nutshell, Neymar is not, by himself, going to do much to increase PSG's match day or media income.
They can only sell so many extra tickets for a 48,000-seat capacity ground that averaged more than 45,000 per game last season. If they sell out every other seat purely because of Neymar, the extra income might be £2m a year.
Don't take my word for it, look at what happened at Barcelona after Neymar joined them in 2013 in a deal eventually revealed as costing Barca £71.5m in transfer fee and related costs, plus about £36m in wages since. Barcelona's total club income was €482.6m in 2012-13, or the season before Neymar joined. (I'm using euros here because that's the currency Barcelona use, and for consistency).

The following season, that had 'soared' with the 'Neymar effect', to, er, €484.6m. Or by not much, and almost certainly not much to do with Neymar.
In 2014-15 and then 2015-16, Barcelona's match day income jumped a few million euros each year, in line with ticket price inflation - again nothing to do with Neymar.
Meanwhile their media income climbed in line with progress in the Champions League - but by just under €20m and then by €3m. Again, nothing to do with Neymar, per se.
It's when we get to commercial income that Barcelona's income has grown significantly in recent years, up year-on-year by €49.6m to 2014-15, and again by just over €50m to 2015-16. Could this be the Neymar effect? In three words, not by much.
Barcelona themselves cited additional sponsorship revenues as being from the bonuses from their 2014-15 treble winning season, improvements in renewed contracts (from firms including Audi), and new commercial arrangements with Beko and Telefonica as 'key drivers of growth'.

Of course, having Neymar as one of their stars is an important part of what allows them to sign lucrative deals with major firms who use the Barcelona players' images to sell products globally and of course, when they tour - not least in Asia and the USA - then one-off match fees will be higher because Neymar is on show.
Yet Neymar, even as one of the club's major stars, was just one player contributing to this bump, alongside Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez to name just two.
Let's say, for sake of argument, that every single cent of Barcelona's additional income since Neymar joined was solely down to their three main stars: Messi, Neymar and Suarez. (It wasn't, obviously, but let's stick with it, for now).
That's an increase of around €200m between 2013 and 2016 - the year for which the most recent reliable data is available. That's €66.6m for each of those three, over three years. That's €22.2m per year each. Even at today's exchange rates, that's shy of £20m per year.
You would be hard pushed to argue that Neymar, on his own, has banked Barcelona much more than half as much (£60m) as he cost them in transfer fee and wages (about £110m).

Again that's not to say he hasn't been a huge success: he has. He has shone on the pitch and helped them win trophies - the greatest currency of all in sport, or at least they should be. The notion that he has been a cash cow is simply not true. The evidence does not exist.
So to return to PSG's signing of the player, there is no evidence Neymar will come anywhere close to recouping them the money they will spend on his transfer fee and wages, which together will collectively cost them around £400m-plus over the terms of his deal - at a conservative estimate.
Unless, of course, suddenly PSG find they have a commercial sponsor, perhaps the organising committee of the 2022 World Cup, who want to sign a record-breaking new deal for PSG to be 2022 World Cup ambassadors, in a campaign fronted by Neymar.
If they paid £100m-a-year for such a deal, Neymar would be seen as paying for himself - and the rest of the world would likely see it as the financial sham it would be.
In the meantime, the non-financial benefits to PSG signing Neymar will be huge indeed. The Qatar-owned club will have a huge name to bolster their image. Form permitting.
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